The story so far
India Monsoon Forecast Updates
Tracked across 2 sources · Updated 5h ago
India's July monsoon rainfall exceeded expectations, easing fears of a shortfall. However, the IMD forecasts below-normal rain for August-September due to El Niño intensification, with WMO warning of its global impact.
How it unfolded
7h ago
WMO warns El Niño intensifying; IMD confirms below-normal outlook
1d ago
IMD predicts below-normal monsoon for August-September
1d ago
July monsoon rains exceed normal, defying El Niño forecasts
What happened earlier
Latest updates
Latest
Full story →August-September rain likely to be below normal, says IMD
IMD forecasts below-normal rainfall (less than 94% of LPA) and above-normal temperatures across India for August and September 2026.
El Niño conditions are expected to strengthen, negatively impacting the monsoon's second half.
July 2026 saw a recovery with rainfall at 283.3mm, 1% above the LPA, due to four low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal.
IMD recorded 91 lightning-related deaths and 84 flood-related deaths across multiple Indian states in July 2026.
WMO warned that El Niño will dominate global climate patterns in the August-October 2026 season.
Earlier · 1d ago
Full story →‘Normal’ July rain defies forecast of El Nino impact
India's July monsoon rainfall reached 270.1 mm, close to the normal of 271.9 mm, defying IMD's forecast of below-normal precipitation.
Rainfall distribution remained skewed: central India received 29% excess, while east & northeast had a 30% deficit and south India 28% deficit.
Experts from Climate Trends state that El Niño alone can no longer explain India's rainfall behaviour due to global warming and changing atmospheric circulation.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projects an 81% probability of a very strong El Niño between Oct and Dec.