‘Normal’ July rain defies forecast of El Nino impact

India's July monsoon rainfall reached 270.1 mm, close to the normal of 271.9 mm, defying IMD's forecast of below-normal precipitation.

Rainfall distribution remained skewed: central India received 29% excess, while east & northeast had a 30% deficit and south India 28% deficit.

Experts from Climate Trends state that El Niño alone can no longer explain India's rainfall behaviour due to global warming and changing atmospheric circulation.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projects an 81% probability of a very strong El Niño between Oct and Dec.