IMD Forecasts Below-Normal Rain, Above-Normal Temperatures for August-September 2026
UPSC / SSC current affairs note · IR
Why in news
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a long-range forecast predicting below-normal rainfall (less than 94% of the Long Period Average) and above-normal temperatures for August and September 2026. This comes as the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns that El Niño conditions are intensifying, which could impact the second half of the monsoon season. The forecast is crucial for agriculture, water management, and disaster preparedness in India.
Background
The southwest monsoon typically runs from June to September, with August being a key rainfall month. In 2026, the monsoon had a weak start with a -40% rainfall deficit at the end of June, but recovered in July due to multiple low-pressure systems. The IMD's forecast for August-September is based on evolving El Niño conditions and other climatic factors.
Key facts
IMD forecasts below-normal rainfall (less than 94% of the Long Period Average) for August and September 2026.
Above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures are likely across most of India in August.
August typically records 254.9 mm of rainfall.
As of July 30, 2026, cumulative monsoon rainfall was -13% relative to LPA, a sharp improvement from -40% at the end of June.
July 2026 recorded 283.3 mm of rainfall, which is 1% above the LPA of 280.5 mm.
The July recovery was attributed to four low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal, two of which intensified into depressions.
Valsad in Gujarat recorded more than 1,000 mm of rainfall in a single day in July.
IMD recorded 91 lightning and thunderstorm-related deaths in July across several states.
84 flood-related deaths were recorded in July across Assam, Maharashtra, Jammu and Kashmir, Nagaland, Kerala, and Himachal Pradesh.
WMO warned that El Niño is intensifying and expected to dominate global climate patterns in August-October 2026.
Prelims pointers
- India Meteorological Department (IMD) - national weather forecasting agency.
- Long Period Average (LPA) - average rainfall over a 50-year period, used as a benchmark.
- El Niño - warming of Pacific Ocean waters affecting global weather.
- World Meteorological Organization (WMO) - UN agency for weather, climate, and water.
- Southwest monsoon - primary rainy season in India from June to September.
- Low-pressure systems - weather systems that bring rainfall.
- Bay of Bengal - source of many monsoon low-pressure systems.
- Valsad - district in Gujarat, India.
- Long-range forecast - weather prediction for extended periods (e.g., monthly, seasonal).
Mains angles
- Discuss the impact of El Niño on the Indian monsoon and its implications for agriculture and food security.
- Critically examine the effectiveness of IMD's forecasting capabilities in predicting monsoon variability.
- Analyze the socio-economic consequences of below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures on rural livelihoods.
- Evaluate the role of low-pressure systems in modulating monsoon rainfall despite El Niño conditions.
- Examine the disaster management challenges posed by extreme weather events like lightning and floods.