Gas Prices Will Stay Higher for Longer, Even if Oil Falls

Gasoline prices remain 32% higher than before the Iran war at $3.94 a gallon, despite U.S. crude oil hovering around $80 a barrel.

Gasoline crack spreads are at 90 cents a gallon, the highest level in four years, indicating strained refining margins.

China reduced crude oil imports to 5.7 million barrels a day in June, down from 11 million, but did not provide slack in refined products as it cut gasoline and diesel exports.

Global refining capacity in the Middle East and Russia has been severely curtailed by conflict, reducing processed fuel supply.

Fuel markets lack buffers like crude oil's strategic reserve releases, which were mostly crude, not refined products.