After brief burst of rain, monsoon in dry phase, deficit rises to 18%

India's monsoon weakened after a week of good showers, widening the nationwide rainfall deficit to 18% as of July 12, 2026.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted subdued rainfall over northwest, west-central, and south Peninsular India for the next six to seven days.

The dry spell threatens to undermine recent gains in agricultural sowing; all major crops have lower sown area than last year due to a large deficit in the monsoon core region.

Fifteen states, including Bihar, Jharkhand, Punjab, Gujarat, and Kerala, reported a cumulative deficit of 20% or more (up to 73%) from June 1 to July 12.

Region-wise, east and northeast India recorded a 37% deficit, and heavy rainfall predicted over parts of northeast and east India will not be enough to offset the impact of El Niño.