The here and now of a 'forever war' period

Direct inter-State conflicts doubled from two in 2023 to four in 2024, reaching eight in 2025, the highest since 1946, according to Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO).

The Cold War era averaged two to four active inter-State conflicts per year, with durations of 16 to 24 months; the post-Cold War era averaged one to two, lasting three to four-and-a-half months.

Protracted conventional armed conflicts among countries are increasing and proving intractable, with examples including Russia-Ukraine and US-Israel-Iran.

As multipolarity strengthens, the world could enter a stable phase where nations realize aggression no longer shifts the balance of power in their favor.