2026 could be second warmest year on record

could become the second warmest year on record, with scientists warning crossing the 1.5°C threshold is becoming easier.

The first half of 2026 (up to July 14) averaged 1.45°C above pre-industrial levels, the third-highest on record.

Breaching the 1.5°C threshold in 2026 does not require an El Niño, unlike previous years.

Past years 2023, 2024, and 2025 rank as second warmest, warmest, and third warmest respectively, with 2023 and 2025 near 1.5°C.

The average warming from 2023 to 2025 was 1.52°C, raising the possibility that 1.5°C may become the new normal.