US scientists analysed 55 storm and atmospheric variables to identify hurricane rapid intensification

Researchers at NSF NCAR developed a statistical model that predicts hurricane rapid intensification up to five days in advance for Atlantic storms.

The model analyzes 55 environmental and storm-related variables, including sea surface temperatures and upper-level wind shear, using NOAA's Global Ensemble Forecast System data.

Rapid intensification is defined as maximum sustained winds increasing by at least 30 knots (about 35 mph) within 24 hours.

Current tools from the National Hurricane Center provide only one to three days of advance warning.

The study was published in the journal Weather and Forecasting with co-authors from the University at Albany and the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research.