Below-Normal Rainfall Does Not Guarantee Higher Food Prices; Spatial & Monthly Distribution More Critical: Report

SBI research report finds below-normal rainfall does not automatically trigger higher food prices.

Food inflation depends more on monthly and geographical distribution of rainfall across states than on the net deficit.

The report cites 2018 as an example where below-average rainfall had no food inflation impact due to better spatial distribution.

Only in the 2009 El Niño year did food inflation hit 13.1%, but that was attributed to MSP hikes, pay commission recommendations, and loan waivers, not just rainfall.

Historical data from 2000 to 2026 shows no direct link between rainfall deficit and food inflation spikes.