Scripting an endgame in the Russia-Ukraine war

Russia has taken heavy losses in Ukraine, with advances in Donetsk and Luhansk stalled or reversed.

Ukrainian drone attacks have degraded Russia's naval capabilities in the Black Sea and caused fuel crises in Crimea, St. Petersburg, and Moscow.

Putin's intransigence is influenced by fears of domestic political fallout from ending the war without territorial gains.

He believes he can outlast Ukraine and take additional territory in the Donbas by force or negotiation.

Ending the war could upset military and security services, as seen in the Prigozhin mutiny in 2023.