Lingering Impact of Super El Niño: Largest Heat Effect May Lie Ahead
UPSC / SSC current affairs note · IR
Why in news
India's monsoon in 2026 has been erratic, with June being the fifth-driest since 1901, followed by heavy July rains. A rapidly strengthening El Niño, combined with 1.55°C global warming, raises concerns that 2027 could be a record-breaking heat year. The effects of a weak monsoon may persist beyond September, impacting agriculture and water resources.
Background
El Niño is a climate pattern characterized by unusual warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, which typically weakens the Indian monsoon circulation. The current El Niño is strengthening rapidly, and global warming is exacerbating its impacts by increasing atmospheric moisture-holding capacity.
Key facts
June 2026 rainfall was about 40% below normal, making it India's fifth-driest June since 1901.
On July 23, 2026, Umergam in Gujarat's Valsad district received 1,064 mm of rain in 24 hours, the third-highest daily rainfall ever recorded in India.
By July 26, the national rainfall deficit narrowed to 15% due to heavy July rains.
By July 17, kharif sowing covered about 658 lakh hectares, 42 lakh hectares (6%) less than the same time in 2025.
Pulses sowing was 15% behind, coarse cereals 11%, oilseeds 6%, and cotton 6% compared to the previous year.
For every 1°C of warming, the atmosphere can hold about 7% more water vapour, increasing the potential for heavy downpours.
A rapidly strengthening El Niño is adding to concerns, as it generally weakens the Indian monsoon circulation.
Global warming of 1.55°C could make 2027 a record-breaking heat year if a powerful El Niño occurs.
Heavy rain cannot quickly restore soil moisture or groundwater storage lost during prolonged dry spells.
Farmers need timely advice on sowing, short-duration crops, and irrigation to adapt to the erratic monsoon.
Prelims pointers
- El Niño: warming of tropical Pacific Ocean, weakens Indian monsoon.
- Kharif sowing: major cropping season in India (June-October).
- Umergam, Gujarat: recorded 1,064 mm rain in 24 hours on July 23, 2026.
- Mahabaleshwar and Lonavala: received close to 1,000 mm in 48 hours in early July 2026.
- Atmospheric moisture-holding capacity increases by 7% per 1°C warming.
Mains angles
- GS1 Geography: Impact of El Niño on Indian monsoon and regional climate variability.
- GS3 Agriculture: Effects of erratic monsoon on kharif sowing, crop yields, and food security.
- GS3 Environment: Interaction between global warming and El Niño, leading to extreme weather events.
- GS3 Disaster Management: Preparedness for floods and droughts in a changing climate.