El Niño Impact on Indian Monsoon: IMD Classification and 2026 Forecast
UPSC / SSC current affairs note · IR
Why in news
IMD has forecast El Niño conditions developing during the 6 southwest monsoon season, with weak conditions in June 6 intensifying to moderate in July 6 and potentially becoming very strong by October-December 6. The government clarified that there is no official 'Super El Niño' category, and the impact on India depends on coupled ocean-atmosphere conditions.
Background
El Niño is a climate pattern characterized by abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central Pacific Ocean. It is known to weaken the Indian monsoon, often leading to below-normal rainfall and drought conditions. IMD classifies El Niño events as weak, moderate, strong, or very strong based on sea surface temperature anomalies.
Key facts
No official 'Super El Niño' category exists; operational classification uses weak, moderate, strong, or very strong based on SST anomalies.
IMD predicted El Niño development during the 6 southwest monsoon season.
El Niño was weak in June 6 and intensified to moderate in July 6.
El Niño is likely to strengthen further during October-December 6, possibly reaching very strong category.
Impact on Indian region depends on coupled ocean-atmosphere conditions, not just El Niño.
IMD continuously monitors oceanic and atmospheric conditions and issues seasonal/monthly forecasts and advisories.
IMD issues impact-based forecasts (IBF) and risk-based warnings valid for next 7 days to aid disaster management authorities.
Information was provided by Minister of State for Earth Sciences Dr. Jitendra Singh in a written reply in Rajya Sabha.
Prelims pointers
- IMD: India Meteorological Department, under Ministry of Earth Sciences.
- WMO: World Meteorological Organization.
- El Niño: warming of equatorial central Pacific SSTs; opposite of La Niña.
- El Niño classification: weak, moderate, strong, very strong (no 'Super El Niño').
- Impact-based Forecast (IBF) and risk-based warnings issued by IMD.
- Rajya Sabha: upper house of Indian Parliament.
- Ministry of Earth Sciences: MoES.
- Dr. Jitendra Singh: Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Earth Sciences.
Mains angles
- Discuss the impact of El Niño on Indian monsoon and agriculture.
- Critically examine the role of IMD in forecasting and disaster management.
- Analyze the effectiveness of impact-based forecasts in mitigating climate risks.
- Evaluate India's preparedness for El Niño-induced droughts and extreme weather events.