India’s Weak Monsoon, El Niño, and Risks Ahead
UPSC / SSC current affairs note · Economy
Why in news
India's southwest monsoon has entered an unusually weak phase after a poor start, raising concerns over agriculture, water availability, and food security. A strengthening El Niño could exacerbate the situation, impacting kharif crops, food inflation, and rural incomes.
Background
The southwest monsoon is crucial for India's agriculture, providing about 70% of annual rainfall. El Niño, a climate pattern characterized by warming of Pacific Ocean waters, often leads to weaker monsoons in India. The current weak phase follows a delayed onset and deficient rainfall in June 2026.
Key facts
The southwest monsoon entered a weak phase after a poor start in June 2026.
El Niño conditions are strengthening, which typically suppresses monsoon rainfall in India.
Weak monsoon can severely affect kharif crops like rice, sugarcane, and cotton.
Reduced rainfall may lead to water shortages for irrigation and drinking.
Food inflation could rise due to lower agricultural output.
Rural incomes and demand may decline, impacting the broader economy.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) monitors monsoon progress and issues forecasts.
Government contingency plans include drought relief and crop insurance schemes.
Prelims pointers
- Southwest monsoon: primary rainy season in India (June-September)
- El Niño: warming of central/eastern Pacific Ocean, affects global weather
- Kharif crops: sown with monsoon onset, harvested in autumn
- India Meteorological Department (IMD): monitors weather and climate
- National Disaster Response Fund (NDRF): for disaster relief
- Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY): crop insurance scheme
Mains angles
- GS1 Geography: Impact of El Niño on Indian monsoon and regional climate variability
- GS3 Agriculture: Effects of monsoon failure on crop production, food security, and farmer livelihoods
- GS3 Economy: Link between monsoon, inflation, and rural demand; policy measures to mitigate risks
- GS2 Governance: Role of IMD and disaster management agencies in forecasting and relief